Total Return Breakouts: Top Value Stocks As The Largest Market Skew Since 1998 Unwinds
Summary Introduction The enthusiasm for Tesla and other bubble-basket stocks is reminiscent of the March 2000 dot-com bubble. As was the case then, the bulls rejected conventional valuation methods for a handful of stocks that seemingly could only go up. While we don’t know exactly when the bubble will pop, it eventually will. – David […]
Total Return Breakouts: Highest Negative Momentum Since 2022 In Next Rotation Stage
Summary Introduction “If there is one common theme to the vast range of the world’s financial crises, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom.” — Carmen Reinhart I have spent the last 35 years trading, researching, and […]
Total Return Breakouts: 3 Tariff Trades As China, Value, And Financial Stocks Move Higher
Summary Introduction The unpredictability of noise traders’ beliefs creates a risk in the price of the asset that deters rational arbitragers from aggressively betting against them. As a result, prices can diverge significantly from fundamental values even in the absence of fundamental risk. ~ DeLong J. B. et al. (1990). Read full article on Seeking […]
Total Return Breakouts: Apple Breakdown, StealthGas, Ardmore, And A Move To Piotroski-Graham Value
Summary Introduction Investors are systematically too optimistic in their expectations for the performance of growth companies and too pessimistic in their expectations for value companies. One behavioral explanation is that investors confuse familiarity with safety. Because they tend to be more familiar with popular growth stocks, those stocks tend to be overvalued.” ~ Berkin, A., […]
January MDA Breakout Stocks Week 3 And Highlighted Top Gainers
Summary Happy New Year! The Weekly MDA Breakout test results for 2024 were among the very best since I began testing the model live on Seeking Alpha in 2017. We are also in the most positive two-years for the S&P 500 since 1998 right before the dot com bubble. It will be important to watch […]
Total Return Breakouts: Records, Skew, And All New Portfolios For 2025
Summary Introduction Weird things can happen without bubbles, but bubbles cannot happen without weird things.” ~ Owen Lamont, Acadian Asset Management Some unusual market conditions are forming and I will address them at the end of the article in the Market Outlook section after highlighting some strong picks for 2025 as new portfolios get released […]
New ETF Trading System For 2025: Sector Gauge Fund Of 82 Funds
Summary Introduction Every year I add new features for members. That is my official marketing pitch for how I share more live financial research with no certainty about future results. As we begin my 9th year on Seeking Alpha, I continue to test theories and many different models that emerged from my doctoral research on […]
Top Forensic Value 2025 Selections: Highest Positive And Negative Scoring Stocks For January
Summary Introduction This is a fundamental value study that offers two new forensic portfolios for 2025 to continue testing the top four forensic algorithms applied to detect bankruptcy risk, earnings manipulation, and financial irregularities. This forward testing study makes portfolio selections from the highest positive and highest negative scoring stocks across the U.S. stock exchanges […]
2025 Weekly Bounce/Lag Momentum Stocks For Week 1 – 12/29
Summary This is a special contribution article by Prof. Grant Henning based on his published research on the B/LM technical theory. The model and comments are expressly based on his own proprietary methodology and forecasts in the references below. These selections are exclusively for members. Grant has agreed to extend his bonus weekly Bounce/Lag picks […]
Market Resilience Amidst The Brutal Rotations To The Next Rally
Summary Introduction This article serves as both my outlook for 2025 with the latest Momentum Gauge® signals and a revisit of the January Investing Experts Podcast interview with Rena Sherbill at Seeking Alpha. The MDA statistical approach referenced throughout stands for multiple discriminant analysis and relates to the application of dozens of variables simultaneously to […]
